Download PDF Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers Writen By John Kay

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

By : John Kay

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Book Synopsis :

Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry?s actuarial tables and the gambler?s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one?not least Steve Jobs?knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package?what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in

Book Detail :

Author : John Kay

Pages : 528 pages

Publisher : W. W. Norton Company

Language :

ISBN-10 : 1324004770

ISBN-13 : 9781324004776

 
Supporting format: PDF, EPUB, Kindle, Audio, MOBI, HTML, RTF, TXT, etc.
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